The campaigns of the candidates and the increasing number of early votes cast in crucial battleground states are shaping the political landscape across the United States as the 2024 presidential election draws closer.
With just two weeks to go before Election Day, early voting data has already begun to offer a glimpse into how crucial demographics may sway the final outcome—and in some states, particularly in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia, the early numbers tell a compelling story.
District of Columbia’s Historic Democratic Loyalty
The District of Columbia has long been a Democratic stronghold, and the past three presidential elections underscore that trend. From 2012 to 2020, Democratic candidates captured 92.1% of the vote, compared to a meager 5.4% for Republicans. The figures paint a clear picture of D.C.’s political leanings, making it one of the most solidly Democratic areas in the nation.
The loyalty of D.C. voters to the Democratic Party isn’t likely to shift in 2024. With early voting underway, the District’s consistent history suggests an overwhelming turnout for Vice President Kamala Harris as she goes head-to-head with former President Donald Trump.
However, with Harris currently leading Trump by a razor-thin margin of 1.2% nationally—49% to 47.8%, according to the latest Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate—the importance of every voter is magnified.
Virginia and Maryland’s Early Voting Trends
Early voting has shown a significant turnout in neighboring Virginia, with 1,023,200 mail-in and early in-person votes cast thus far. The partisan breakdown reveals that Democrats cast 53% of the votes, Republicans 38%, and other parties 9%.
Virginia has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, and in 2024, it appears poised to follow that trend, with early indications showing the state voting 54.1% for Harris and 44% for Trump.
Maryland, another key Democratic state, is also seeing a strong turnout in early voting, with 353,766 mail-in ballots already cast. The state’s early vote distribution heavily favors Democrats, who account for 67% of these votes, compared to just 18% for Republicans. Marylanders can cast ballots for in-person early voting Oct. 24-31.
In the 2020 election, Maryland went Democratic by a substantial margin, with 65.4% voting for Biden and 32.2% for Trump. Harris’ campaign can feel confident about maintaining Maryland in their column, given the early voting trends.
National Early Voting and the 2024 Outlook
On a national scale, early voting numbers are equally significant, with over 15 million mail-in and early in-person votes already cast. Of these, 46% are from registered Democrats, 36% from Republicans, and 18% from other parties.
Both parties have heavily invested in encouraging early voting.
Harris’ campaign continues to push Democratic voters to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, banking as many votes as possible before the final count. In contrast, the twice-impeached former president’s initial criticism of early voting has softened, and his campaign has also embraced the tactic, recognizing its critical importance in tightly contested states.
The fight between Harris and Trump is being fought most fiercely in seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted in October shows the race is deadlocked, with 49% of likely voters supporting Harris and 48% backing Trump. The near-even split mirrors the broader national mood, where both candidates are locked in a tight contest among “deciders,” a group of voters who remain uncommitted and could sway the outcome in the final days.
“I think this election will break at the end,” veteran Democratic strategist James Carville remarked on MSNBC. “Someone will carry the swing states, and that will decide it. But one thing’s for sure: whoever breaks those states 5-2 or 6-1 will not only take the presidency; they’ll likely do well in the House and Senate too. This race is a long way from decided.”